{"id":130099,"date":"2025-04-24T19:41:55","date_gmt":"2025-04-24T11:41:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.gocpmall.com\/?p=130099"},"modified":"2025-04-24T19:41:55","modified_gmt":"2025-04-24T11:41:55","slug":"%e6%91%a9%e6%a0%b9%e5%a3%ab%e4%b8%b9%e5%88%a9%ef%bc%9a%e4%bc%81%e4%b8%9a%e7%9b%88%e5%88%a9%e5%89%8d%e6%99%af%e5%bc%82%e5%b8%b8%e9%bb%af%e6%b7%a1-%e7%be%8e%e8%82%a1%e6%88%96%e4%bb%8d%e6%9c%aa%e6%8e%a2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gocpmall.com\/?p=130099","title":{"rendered":"\u6469\u6839\u58eb\u4e39\u5229\uff1a\u4f01\u4e1a\u76c8\u5229\u524d\u666f\u5f02\u5e38\u9eef\u6de1 \u7f8e\u80a1\u6216\u4ecd\u672a\u63a2\u5e95 _ \u4e1c\u65b9\u8d22\u5bcc\u7f51"},"content":{"rendered":"

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摩根士丹利 策略师迈克尔·威尔逊（Michael Wilson）表示，鉴于经济严重放缓的风险，分析师正纷纷下调对美国企业盈利的预期。 　　他指出， 标准普尔 500指数的盈利预期修正广度（即分析师调高与调低盈利预估的比例）目前已降至极为罕见的水平，接近在没有经济衰退的情况下的下行极值。 　　“企业如今面临的不确定性比新冠疫情以来任何时候都要大，”威尔逊在报告中写道。“这正在压制盈利预期的上调。” 　　数据显示，分析师对第一季度标普500指数成份股，每股收益增长的预测，已从年初的11.4%大幅下调至6.9%。 　　威尔逊指出，盈利修正的广度早在近一年前就已见顶，远远早于标普500指数2月创下历史高点的时间，这支持了他关于此次回调远超市场普遍预期的观点。 　　“正因如此，我们现在更关注那些可能已经反映轻度衰退的股票或板块，即便整体指数尚未体现这一点，”威尔逊说。“简而言之，如果经济得以避免衰退，市场或许在两周前已见底；反之，标普500还会继续下探。” 　　威尔逊预计，在有关经济是否衰退的硬数据（尤其是就业报告）出台前，标普500指数大概率将在5,000至5,500点之间波动。 　　由于市场担忧美国总统特朗普的关税计划将拖累经济、推 高通 胀，今年以来美股大幅下跌。Q1财报季表现乏力，未能提振市场情绪，投资者也开始转向美国以外的市场寻找机会。 　　今年迄今为止，不含美国的MSCI全球发达市场指数上涨超6%，而标普500则下跌约10%。 （文章来源：财联社）
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摩根士丹利 策&#3005 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-130099","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gocpmall.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/130099","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gocpmall.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gocpmall.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gocpmall.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gocpmall.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=130099"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gocpmall.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/130099\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gocpmall.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=130099"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gocpmall.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=130099"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gocpmall.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=130099"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}