{"id":150753,"date":"2025-10-31T07:41:36","date_gmt":"2025-10-30T23:41:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.gocpmall.com\/?p=150753"},"modified":"2025-10-31T07:41:36","modified_gmt":"2025-10-30T23:41:36","slug":"%e7%89%a7%e5%8e%9f%e8%82%a1%e4%bb%bd%e4%b8%89%e5%ad%a3%e6%8a%a5%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90%ef%bc%9a%e5%91%a8%e6%9c%9f%e4%b8%8b%e8%a1%8c%e5%8e%8b%e5%8a%9b%e6%98%be%e7%8e%b0%ef%bc%8c%e9%9d%99%e5%be%85%e5%b8%83","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gocpmall.com\/?p=150753","title":{"rendered":"\u7267\u539f\u80a1\u4efd\u4e09\u5b63\u62a5\u5206\u6790\uff1a\u5468\u671f\u4e0b\u884c\u538b\u529b\u663e\u73b0\uff0c\u9759\u5f85\u5e03\u5c40\u65f6\u673a\u4ece\u6295\u884c\u5750\u5e84\u89c6\u89d2\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u7267\u539f\u80a1\u4efd2_\u8d22\u5bcc\u53f7_\u4e1c\u65b9\u8d22\u5bcc\u7f51"},"content":{"rendered":"

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牧原股份三季报分析：周期下行压力显现，静待布局时机 从投行坐庄视角分析，牧原股份2025年三季报呈现典型的”周期拐点”特征，第三季度净利润同比大幅下降55.98% 的核心数据，为资金运作提供了明确的阶段逻辑。 短期走势（1-3个月）：利空兑现下的震荡筑底 猪价下行周期的压力在三季报中得到确认，这份业绩将引发市场对盈利高点的担忧，导致股价承压。交易层面，主力资金将借助此利空进行洗盘，通过制造恐慌情绪清洗不坚定筹码。关键短期支撑位在42元（年线及前期平台），压力位在48元（60日线及缺口下沿）。预计股价将在该区间反复震荡，完成筹码换手。 中长期走势（6个月以上）：周期轮回中的价值重估 作为生猪养殖龙头，牧原的核心竞争力在于其持续优化的成本控制能力。在当前行业普遍亏损的背景下，公司仍能保持盈利，充分证明其抗风险能力。周期底部越是漫长，行业去产能速度越快，下一轮猪周期反弹的高度就越可观。长期强支撑在38元（历史估值底部），关键压力位在55元（前高及估值上沿）。 坐庄策略建议 当前宜采取”下跌分批建仓，反弹波段操作”策略。在42元支撑位附近开始布局底仓，若跌至38元长期支撑位可加大仓位。上行至48元压力位附近可适度减仓，等待回调后的二次买入机会。重点关注能繁母猪存栏量等行业先行指标，猪周期反转信号明确时，可重仓参与主升浪行情。 追加内容 本文作者可以追加内容哦 !
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牧原股份三季&#25253 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-150753","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gocpmall.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/150753","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gocpmall.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gocpmall.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gocpmall.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gocpmall.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=150753"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gocpmall.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/150753\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gocpmall.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=150753"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gocpmall.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=150753"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gocpmall.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=150753"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}