{"id":25385,"date":"2022-08-26T01:41:59","date_gmt":"2022-08-25T17:41:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.gocpmall.com\/?p=25385"},"modified":"2022-08-26T01:41:59","modified_gmt":"2022-08-25T17:41:59","slug":"%e6%b0%94%e6%b8%a9%e5%8d%87%e9%ab%982%e2%84%83%e5%af%b9%e5%b0%8f%e9%ba%a6%e4%ba%a7%e9%87%8f%e5%92%8c%e4%bb%b7%e6%a0%bc%e6%9c%89%e4%bd%95%e5%bd%b1%e5%93%8d%ef%bc%9f-_-%e4%b8%9c%e6%96%b9%e8%b4%a2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gocpmall.com\/?p=25385","title":{"rendered":"\u6c14\u6e29\u5347\u9ad82\u2103\u5bf9\u5c0f\u9ea6\u4ea7\u91cf\u548c\u4ef7\u683c\u6709\u4f55\u5f71\u54cd\uff1f _ \u4e1c\u65b9\u8d22\u5bcc\u7f51"},"content":{"rendered":"

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中国科学院消息，中科院大气物理研究所张天一联合皇家荷兰气象研究所、中国农业大学等国内外13家科研机构开发了一个基于全球环流模型、小麦生长模型和一般均衡经济模型的集合模拟方法。 该模型可以从全球小麦供给链的角度上解析未来2℃增温导致的气候变化和气候极端事件对全球小麦产量、价格和供给链的影响。 该研究于2022年8月19日发表在Cell地学子刊One Earth(影响因子14.994)上。 研究结果显示：全球2℃增温下，CO2的施肥作用可以有效抵消增温导致的产量损失，未来全球小麦产量或出现少许增加(约1.7%)。但是，不同于传统观点，产量增加并没有导致全球小麦价格降低。 研究发现，处于中高纬度小麦出口国的产量增加，而处于低纬度小麦进口国的产量减少。 这进一步扩大了 农产品 供需缺口，加深了传统小麦国际贸易格局，导致全球小麦价格峰值提升6.2%。区域对比研究结果发现， 未来2℃增温下，当全球小麦产量处于低谷时，位于低纬度且人口众多的小麦进口国的消费者价格增幅将普遍超过位于高纬度的小麦出口国。 这不仅增加了小麦进口国家人口的生活经济负担，还不利于这些国家的主粮自给能力的建设，使得它们在粮食生产安全的保障上处于被动局面。 （文章来源：央视新闻）
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