{"id":58677,"date":"2023-09-22T05:15:06","date_gmt":"2023-09-21T21:15:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.gocpmall.com\/?p=58677"},"modified":"2023-09-22T05:15:06","modified_gmt":"2023-09-21T21:15:06","slug":"%e9%92%a2%e6%9d%90%ef%bc%9a%e5%8e%9f%e6%96%99%e8%bd%ae%e7%95%aa%e4%b8%8a%e6%b6%a8-%e9%bb%91%e8%89%b2%e6%ad%a3%e5%8f%8d%e9%a6%88%e6%8c%81%e7%bb%ad","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gocpmall.com\/?p=58677","title":{"rendered":"\u94a2\u6750\uff1a\u539f\u6599\u8f6e\u756a\u4e0a\u6da8 \u9ed1\u8272\u6b63\u53cd\u9988\u6301\u7eed"},"content":{"rendered":"

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核心观点：中性 偏多 黑色系整体延续震荡上行走势，原料轮流强势上涨，助推成材震荡上行。从基本面看来，上周日均铁水小幅下降升至247.8万吨，根据高炉检修来看，预计下周铁水仍有环比小幅回落的可能。短期内废钢日耗并未见到明显回调，长短流程钢厂均未出现明显通过降低废钢比例而减产的迹象，反而废钢价格波动较慢，短流程钢厂利润修复，短流程钢厂日耗有上升趋势。我们认为，供给端铁水维持高位，废钢日耗未降反升，需求呈现环比回升，季节性回暖状态。短期内成材库存矛盾仍在累积、钢厂亏损不深、未见旺季需求落空的状态下，黑色系难以形成流畅负反馈。在铁水持续高位，原料支撑的情况下，叠加十一之前补库行情预期下，预计短期内成材价格或将继续呈现区间震荡状态。 月差：观望 成材受原料价格上涨而推涨，近月螺纹库存低位，螺纹正套阶段性走扩近30点。 高炉检修：偏多 根据我们对于高炉检修统计，目前暂未出现行政性减产以及钢厂大批量主动减产现象，9月高炉检修共影响铁水产量158万吨，预计下周铁水仍有环比有小幅回落的可能。按照目前的高炉检修情况测算，9月生铁产量暂时难出现大幅下降。 废钢：偏多 根据我们的测算，目前华东电炉厂平电螺纹生产利润近-150元\/吨，谷电成本仍盈利近20元\/吨左右。成材上涨，电炉端谷电开始有利润，短流程钢厂废钢日耗上升。本周废钢提涨50元\/吨，预计提涨后谷电生产仍亏损，预计短流程钢厂产能利用率难有大幅提升。 成材库存：中性 供应端热卷轧线陆续检修，热卷产量连续走下，热卷社会库存接近历史高位，交割库仓单库存历史高位，上周社库厂库同时去库，去库可持续性尚有待观察。 海外钢材价格：偏多 汇率维持高位，人民币贬值对成材出口形成直接利好，预计9月钢材出口仍维持高位。上周欧盟热卷进口价格维持在660美金\/吨，东南亚热卷进口价格上涨2美金至537美金\/吨，中国出口价格上涨5美金至555美金\/吨。 （文章来源：天风期货）
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核心观点：中&#24615 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-58677","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gocpmall.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58677","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gocpmall.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gocpmall.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gocpmall.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gocpmall.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=58677"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gocpmall.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58677\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gocpmall.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=58677"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gocpmall.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=58677"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gocpmall.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=58677"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}