{"id":61093,"date":"2023-10-16T05:50:00","date_gmt":"2023-10-15T21:50:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.gocpmall.com\/?p=61093"},"modified":"2023-10-16T05:50:00","modified_gmt":"2023-10-15T21:50:00","slug":"%e7%83%a7%e7%a2%b1%e7%8e%b0%e8%b4%a7%e5%8c%ba%e5%9f%9f%e5%88%86%e5%8c%96-%e7%bb%93%e6%9e%84%e5%81%8f%e5%bc%b1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.gocpmall.com\/?p=61093","title":{"rendered":"\u70e7\u78b1\u73b0\u8d27\u533a\u57df\u5206\u5316 \u7ed3\u6784\u504f\u5f31"},"content":{"rendered":"

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目前烧碱市场的博弈点在于05合约的合理估值。站在利润的角度，目前烧碱利润率接近30%，氯碱综合利润率接近40%，利润处于高位。从往年来看，一般11月到春节前，因季节性因素，烧碱利润会走弱，因此当下05合约应有较大幅度贴水。从供需来看，虽然山东地区有检修扰动，但是四季度中后期，随着检修装置复产，市场将会面临高产量、高库存、高利润的局面，结构偏弱。同时，目前不管是内需区域套利，还是出口套利，价差和利润均大幅下滑，意味着市场对50碱的囤货需求的减弱。需求方面，下游氧化铝、粘胶短纤、印染行业、造纸行业开工高位，但刚需进一步扩张空间有限。山东氧化铝主流企业前期持续提高32%液碱采购价格，随着厂家送货量上升，超过日耗量，因此未来采购价上调空间有限，随着库存上升或重新掌握定价权，向厂家压价，这也意味着下游刚需和囤货到极限。现货方面，各区域当下有明显分化，山东地区因10月份有大厂检修，厂家压力不大，现货价格较为坚挺。江苏地区检修较少，产量上升、库存上升，结构偏弱，部分企业开始降价。 （文章来源： 国泰君安 期货）
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目前烧碱市场&#30340 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-61093","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gocpmall.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61093","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gocpmall.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gocpmall.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gocpmall.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gocpmall.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=61093"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.gocpmall.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61093\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.gocpmall.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=61093"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gocpmall.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=61093"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.gocpmall.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=61093"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}